India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty following the Pahalgam terror attack has reignited tensions with Pakistan, raising critical questions under international law.
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NEW DELHI: In a decisive move following the brutal terror attack on tourists in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam, allegedly orchestrated by Pakistan-backed terrorists, India has announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960. This diplomatic escalation marks a significant shift in Indo-Pak relations and has triggered strong reactions from Islamabad, with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif calling the suspension an
“act of war.”
The Indian government, in its official communication, has cited
“international law—specifically the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties—as the legal foundation for this action“
Can India Legally Suspend the Indus Waters Treaty?
Historically, India has threatened to reconsider the Indus Waters Treaty in response to cross-border terrorism emanating from Pakistan. However, the Pahalgam terror attack appears to have crossed a threshold, prompting India to formally notify Pakistan of the suspension.
Although the Indus Waters Treaty itself does not explicitly allow for unilateral suspension or termination (Article XII states that the treaty can only be modified or terminated through mutual agreement), experts point out that
broader principles of international law apply.
Senior advocate Neeraj Kishan Kaul and former Indus Water Commissioner P.K. Saxena have explained that India can invoke Article 62 of the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, which permits suspension or termination of a treaty under a
“fundamental change of circumstances.”
According to Article 62:
- A fundamental, unforeseen change that radically alters the obligations of a party under a treaty may justify suspension.
- The original basis of the treaty—mutual goodwill and friendship—has been severely compromised by repeated acts of terrorism originating from Pakistan.
Thus, India’s decision to hold the treaty
“in abeyance”
could be legally defensible under international law.
Understanding the Vienna Convention’s Application
Article 62(1) specifies that if circumstances essential to the consent of the parties have changed fundamentally—and were unforeseen—then a treaty may be suspended or terminated. Furthermore, the change must have radically transformed the extent of obligations remaining under the agreement.
Importantly:
- The treaty cannot be suspended if it concerns the establishment of boundaries (which the Indus Treaty does not).
- Nor can a party invoke a change of circumstances if it caused the breach itself.
In India’s case, experts argue that continued terrorist attacks and the threat to national security constitute an unforeseeable and radical change, justifying the suspension of the treaty under this framework.
India’s Legal Argument on the Global Stage
India can make a strong case internationally by highlighting that the Indus Waters Treaty was signed under the spirit of goodwill and peaceful cooperation. Persistent acts of terrorism sponsored from Pakistani soil have fundamentally undermined this foundational understanding.
Legal experts suggest that if the matter is escalated to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) or the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), India could assert that Pakistan’s actions have rendered the original intent of the treaty impossible to uphold.
Furthermore, India has, since 2023, consistently advocated for a review of the treaty—citing both environmental changes and security concerns.
What Happens Now? Practical Implications of the Suspension
Suspending the treaty does not immediately mean that India will halt the flow of water to Pakistan. Instead, India has several graduated options at its disposal:
- Administrative Measures:
- India can stop sharing hydrological data such as monthly flow reports.
- It can deny Pakistani officials access for inspections of river flow systems in Indian territory.
- Strategic Water Management:
- India could increase water storage in existing dams and reservoirs, reducing the water flow into Pakistan-controlled areas.
- Water could be diverted through Indian canals and irrigation systems to maximize usage within India.
- Construction Acceleration:
- India can expedite projects like the Ratle Hydropower Project on the Chenab River and other canal-building initiatives, further controlling water flow.
- India could also continue to advance its case in ongoing legal disputes, or even withdraw from proceedings while the treaty remains suspended.
Potential Impact on Pakistan
Given Pakistan’s heavy reliance on the Indus system for drinking water, agriculture, and hydroelectric power, any restriction or diversion of water by India could have devastating consequences. During the peak of summer, when water demand is highest, even minor disruptions could trigger severe water shortages, impact food production, reduce electricity generation, and disrupt daily life for millions in Pakistan.
Particularly vulnerable are river-dependent areas such as Punjab and Sindh, where agriculture and livelihoods are tightly linked to the Indus system.
India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, prompted by escalating security concerns, represents a bold diplomatic and legal maneuver. While Pakistan has denounced it as an “act of war,” India appears poised to defend its actions under the well-established principles of international law, particularly the Vienna Convention.
In the coming weeks, the international community may urge both nations to seek resolution through dialogue and arbitration. However, given the heightened tensions and India’s clear articulation of its legal basis, a rapid de-escalation seems unlikely.
The evolving situation will not only test the resilience of the Indus Waters Treaty—a cornerstone of India-Pakistan relations for over six decades—but also the larger framework of international law governing transboundary water-sharing agreements.
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